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    Real Estate you should know

    5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time

    With all of the volatility in the stock market and uncertainty about the Coronavirus (COVID-19), some are concerned we may...

    • Susana Murphy
    • April 14th, 2020
    • 4 min read

    With all of the volatility in the stock market and uncertainty about the Coronavirus (COVID-19), some are concerned we may be headed for another housing crash like the one we experienced from 2006-2008. The feeling is understandable. Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research at the real estate consulting firm Meyers Research, addressed this point in a recent interview:

     

    “With people having PTSD from the last time, they’re still afraid of buying at the wrong time.”

     

    There are many reasons, however, indicating this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are five visuals to show the dramatic differences:

     1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then. 

    During the housing bubble, it was difficult NOT to get a mortgage. Today, it is tough to qualify. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association releases a Mortgage Credit Availability Index which is “a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.” The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage. As shown below, during the housing bubble, the index skyrocketed. Currently, the index shows how getting a mortgage is even more difficult than it was before the bubble.

     

    2. Prices are not soaring out of control.

    Below is a graph showing annual house appreciation over the past six years, compared to the six years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation has been quite strong recently, it is nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.

    There’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.6%, so while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating beyond control as it did in the early 2000s.

     

    3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.

    The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory which is causing an acceleration in home values.

     

     

    4. Houses became too expensive to buy.

    The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fourteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased and the mortgage rate is about 3.5%. That means the average family pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a graph showing that difference:

     

    5. People are equity rich, not tapped out.

    In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as a personal ATM machine. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over fifty percent of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity. But owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here is a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out over $500 billion dollars less than before:

    During the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owned was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a rash of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. That can’t happen today.

    If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.

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    About the author

    Susana Murphy

    508-345-5632
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    I'm Susana Murphy, and I founded ALANTE with a clear vision and a passion for redefining what real estate should be. Let me share with you why ALANTE exists, what we stand for, and what we aim to offer both our valued clients and our dedicated agents. ALANTE Real Estate wasn't just a business venture for me—it was a calling born out of a deep-seated belief in doing things differently, and doing them better. Having been in the real estate industry since 2005 myself as a top producing Realtor, I saw firsthand the immense potential for innovation and improvement. I recognized that traditional practices were falling short in meeting the evolving needs of clients and agents alike. My vision for ALANTE was simple yet profound: to elevate the real estate experience by combining cutting-edge technology combined with story driven marketing and timeless values. In an industry often defined by transactions, I wanted to focus on service. I wanted to create a space where clients felt heard, valued, and supported every step of the way, and where agents could thrive in an environment that prioritizes collaboration, growth, support and integrity. At ALANTE, we believe in offering our clients more than just transactions—we offer them transformative experiences. We understand that buying or selling a home is not just a financial decision; it's an emotional journey filled with dreams, aspirations, and life-changing moments. That's why we approach each interaction with empathy, expertise, and a genuine desire to exceed expectations. For our agents, ALANTE is more than just a brokerage—it's a community of like-minded professionals committed to excellence. We provide our agents with the tools, training, and support they need to succeed, all while fostering a culture of mutual respect, collaboration, and continuous learning. We believe that empowered agents create exceptional experiences for our clients, and that belief is at the core of everything we do. In an industry that's constantly evolving, we remain steadfast in our commitment to innovation and adaptability. We embrace technology not as a replacement for human connection, but as a catalyst for enhancing it. From advanced marketing strategies to streamlined processes, we leverage technology to enhance efficiency, transparency, and results. We don't just meet industry standards—we set new ones. We believe in raising the bar and redefining what it means to be a leader in real estate. Our dedication to excellence, integrity, and client satisfaction sets us apart, and it's what drives us to continually push boundaries and exceed expectations. So, whether you're a client looking for a personalized, unparalleled real estate experience or an agent seeking a supportive, forward-thinking brokerage, we invite you to join us on this extraordinary journey. Together, we're not just reimagining real estate—we're elevating it to new heights. Welcome to ALANTE Real Estate, where your vision meets our passion.

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