If we look at purchase applications year over year, we see we started out the year strong, that’s the first part of March, and then it dipped down during the time when people couldn’t get out of their homes. And then since about the middle of May saw year over year increase in purchase applications, more applications this year than last week by week. And where do we stand right now? We are ahead year over year as yo can see in the graph to the left. Now, it’s very good information and very good things to see for the health of the market, and real estate certainly being very strong. 

Now, you can look across and see each region of the country, Northeast leading the way, but each area of the country showing significant jump over the previous year in showings. So, suggestive to say there’s a lot of demand right now. 

We’ve talked a lot about how home has become important, how things are more important to people.  Different things right now are important, whether it be the needs you have in a home, the location you have in a home, other things like that, and we’re seeing significant demand.

The challenge across the country is inventory and according to Danielle Hale from realtor.com, most recently year over year total inventory was down 38%. Buyers continue to be motivated by a low mortgage rate and the strong desire for certainty of ownership in an uncertain world. They’re quickly putting offers on homes that come up for sale, driving the overall number of homes for sale lower. 

So, we know we’ve got a lot of demand there. We know we are limited in the number of homes for sale and the overall supply of homes. This is an economic situation. If we start to look at prices as this price scenario right now across the country is driven by high demand and low supply, keeping upward pressure on prices. 

Here is a look at what experts are forecasting for pricing going forward in the next 12 months, and you can see the overwhelming majority, eight of the nine surveyed here are saying positive price appreciation as we look forward. Some are projecting for this current year, some over the next 12 months, but as you look at that you see anywhere from the range of 3% to 4%. 

A couple of outliers there. Haus still saying negative 1 percent, but overwhelmingly people are saying we’re going to see appreciation going into the remainder of this year and to next year. Again, governed and dictated by supply and by demand, the lack of supply and the overwhelming demand.

Now, there are some questions in the market that we're going to take a look at, the first being forbearance.  Forbearance for the last three weeks has started to level off at 3.93 million. Right now as we look at it from July on in through August, we know that its dropped a little bit and now beginning to level off. The future question is - what’s going to happen with those homes and those people that are coming out of forbearance? That’s the big question right now. 

So, Bank Rate’s Jeff Ostrowski, senior reporter, said this.  “The COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a rise in mortgage defaults and foreclosures. But as the housing market muscles through this economic downturn it looks as if foreclosures will form a trickle rather than a flood, housing experts say.” 

We’ve talked about the significant amount of equity that people have in their homes today and that provides them options. We’re seeing that, his words here are a trickle rather than a flood. So, there will be defaults in the country and certainly we don’t want to see that but that happens in real estate, but nothing like what we saw in 2008 where there were very different scenarios relative to the amount of equity, the financial stress that people felt, and the need to in some cases where they owed more than the home was worth they just walked away and we saw this flood of foreclosures. 

Let's go back to, “The COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a rise in foreclosures.” Let’s address that and let’s say why is that? And here’s the simple answer for that; the percent of distressed property sales is at an all-time low right now. This gives you kind of a look back to January 2012. And we know coming into the health crisis we were certainly low in the number of distressed sales and we’re even lower now. Why? Because there is a moratorium on starting foreclosure proceedings, whether they’re judicial, non-judicial, proceedings, they literally can’t start and as people extend their forbearance, that moratorium gets extended. 

As we start to look into the fall and even into next year, the strength of the housing market is going to be the story that’s out there.  What we just saw earlier a lot of this pent-up demand work through. However, we are seeing some early signs of shift or buying preference to locate to lower density areas, potentially driving some additional purchase activity. So, a lot of data to support right now people are moving from dense areas to less dense areas, urban markets to suburban markets. They’re looking for a backyard, they’re looking for an office, they’re looking for a place for their kids to do school in. There’s just different needs today in a home and that’s certainly driving a lot of the demand that we’re seeing.

So, as we head into fall we’re up again as we looked at that, year over year. Starting to level out there, but strong, strong demand driven by a lot of need in the market. And this is a time right now where home has become more important to people in such a short amount of time than I’ve ever seen before, and the needs that people have, have increased dramatically.

In the Town of Plymouth, home sales have remained consistent from July through August. The number of Average Days on Market has continued to drop in the month of August from 61 in July.

Homes continue entering the market at a steady pace.

In the Town of Scituate, the Average Sale Price increased by just about $50,000 in August. Home sales have slowed down slightly but are remaining on the market in just under 2 months.  The number of new offerings has decreased again which tells us that the market in the town of Scituate is remaining but at a much slower pace than neighboring towns.

In the Town of Kingston, the number of new homes for sale has remained consistent but low from June through August.  The number of homes sold increased which shows us that although there isn't much inventory available, buyers are still actively purchase those homes that do become available. The Average Days on Market decreased from 55 in July and the Average Sale price decreased as well from $534k in July.

In the Town of Norwell, the average days on market have remained the same from July through August. There has been a consist amount of inventory from April through August.  More homes sold in Norwell in the month of August vs. July and the Average Sale Price has increased from $790K in July to just under $1M in August.

In the Town of Hanover, the number of homes sold has continued to increase month over month. The Average Days on Market has decreased from 62 days in July to 43 in August. The Average Sale price has increased from $598K in July.

In the Town of Hull, the number of homes sold has increased from 14 in July to 20 in August.  There were more homes entering into the market during the month of August than July and the Average Days on Market decreased from over 2 months to just 45 days in August. The Average Sale Price has increased from $586K in July to over $700K in the month of August.

In the Town of Sandwich, the Average Days on Market significantly decreased from over 3 months in July to just 69 Days in August.  The number of homes sold has decreased from 55 homes in July. The amount of new inventory in the last 30 days has remained consistent over the last 4 months!

In the Town of Falmouth, the Average Sale Price has increased from $639k in July.  The number of new homes entering the market in August increased from 59 in July which shows us that homeowners are still actively entering the market as summer comes to a close. The number of homes sold has remained consistent in July and August.

In the Town of Yarmouth Port, property sales have decreased slightly from 19 homes sold in July.  The Average Days on Market remain consistent as well as the number of new offers and current homes for sale.