Have we seen the lowest already?  We’re certainly seeing mortgage rates creep up here in the beginning of March, and we’ll see what the future holds but as of today, mortgage rates coming over, the average 30 year fixed, coming over 3%. 

“Since reaching a low point in January, mortgage rates have risen by more than 30 basis points, and the impact on purchase demand has been noticeable.” Freddie Mac reports.

Cont... "Purchase activity remains high. It’s cooled over, off the last few weeks and it’s currently on par with early March prior to the pandemic. However, the rise in mortgage rates over the next couple of months is likely to be more muted in comparison to the last few weeks, and we expect a strong spring sales season."

So average 30 year fixed, 3.02% right now. And in the rearview mirror, Sam Khater here said you know, “What we’ve seen, rates start to tick up.” However they will likely be more muted as we go forward but no doubt the horizon is that interest rates are going to begin to rise as the economy improves, as we get better information on the coronavirus. If we look at this, this is kind of a snapshot here we’ve been using for the 30-year fixed rate going all the way back to the beginning of last year. January and February of last year, two of the best months in residential real estate in over 10 years.  

We’ve been ahead of that this January and February, so a lot of demand, a lot of activity in the market, and now we’re starting to see those rates creep up. Interest rates in today’s market are going to be a question for a lot of people out there thinking about buying a home. 

DS News reported this. “About 325,000 people will exit the forbearance program over the next 6-9 months without a plan in place. Some, but probably not all of those loans, will likely default.” Now, that brings up this question again. Are we going to see this rush of foreclosures? 

325,000 people going into some type of distress sale. Now, we’re not saying all of those are. They’re saying some but not all. 325,000 families and individuals into perspective, I want to show you a picture, if all that inventory were to come to market today.

This graphic gives you a perspective of how housing inventory started each year going all the way back to 2016. You see where it’s been, where we stand today, 325,000, just over 325,000 active inventory across the country. If all of those distress sales came to market tomorrow, which, again, nobody is calling for that - that wouldn’t even get us to where we were this time last year. Or any time, back to 2016. So, as far as the real estate market is concerned, there’s no way we see a foreclosure crisis coming.

The biggest issue no doubt that we face, and it’s highlighted by this graph here, is the lack of inventory.

Odeta Kushi from First American says this. “The lack of existing homes available for sale remains the only drag to housing market potential. Many homeowners may want to upgrade, but do not for fear that they will be unable to find a home to buy, preventing more supply from reaching the market and exacerbating the lack of inventory. As a result, everyone ‘stays put’ and the supply of homes for sale dwindles even further.”

Lawrence Yun says this. “Home sales continue to ascend for the first month of the year, as buyers quickly snatched up virtually every new listing coming to market. Sales easily could have been 20% higher if there had been more inventory, more choices. Again, we can’t sell what we don’t have.” 

We talked a lot about in the past, the sweet spot to sell something. When do you want to sell something? When there’s fewer of that item on the market than any other time. That is usually around January, February, the very end of the year, beginning of the year. Even last January and February was a sweet spot. But today, we sit at an even sweeter spot with about, average about 1.9 months of active inventory across the country. 

Now, depending on where you’re at, that may be a little higher, a little lower. However, we can say it is the sweetest spot in the time that we’ve shown here, and probably in the time that real estate has been sold in your lifetime, to sell a home.

In the Town of Plymouth, home sales continue through the month of February down from 55 homes sold in January. The Average Days on Market remained relatively steady just under one month. The the Average Sale Price has decreased from the mid-$500k range for the first time in two months.

In the Town of Scituate, the Average Sale Price decreased from $777k in January. Home sales decreased again in February, down from 19 homes sold in January.

In the Town of Kingston, the number of new offerings has increased slightly over the last two months bringing numbers into the double digits. The number of homes sold was remaining consistent month over month however it dropped by more than 50%.  The Average Sale Price has increased into the mid-$600K range. 

In the Town of Norwell, the Average Days on Market have decreased again from 12 in January showing that homes are spending even less time on the market. There is limited inventory in many towns, including Norwell however, the number remains fairly consistent month over month with only slight fluctuations. The number of homes sold remain consistent and the Average Sale Price increased from $749k in January.

In the Town of Hanover, the number of homes sold dropped slightly from 10 in January. The Average Days on Market increased slightly and the Average Sale price has decreased by $91,000.

In the Town of Hull, the number of homes sold has decreased by 50% for the first time in the last 3 months. Homes entering the market have remained consistent and there is still a very limited amount of  available inventory.

The Average Days on Market have dramatically increased from 13 days in January.  The Average Sale Price has remained within the $400k bracket with a slight increase since January.

In the Town of Sandwich, the Average Days on Market increased significantly while the number of homes sold remained fairly consistent since January.  Available inventory decreased from 28 available homes in January to 14 currently available.  There was a $100,000 decrease in the Average Sale Price in February.

In the Town of Falmouth, the Average Sale Price has increased from $635K in January.  With limited inventory in most towns, there are still a good amount of new homes entering the market as we moved through the month of February even with an overall decrease. The number of homes sold has decreased by nearly 50% since January.

In the Town of Yarmouth Port, property sales have continued to decrease slightly since December.  The Average Days on Market decreased from 51 days in January and similarly, less homes also entered the market in the month of February.