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    Real Estate you should know

    Three Reasons Why This Is Not a Housing Crisis

       In times of uncertainty, one of the best things we can do to ease our fears is to educate ourselves with research,...

    • Susana Murphy
    • April 9th, 2020
    • 4 min read

      

    In times of uncertainty, one of the best things we can do to ease our fears is to educate ourselves with research, facts, and data. Digging into past experiences by reviewing historical trends and understanding the peaks and valleys of what’s come before us is one of the many ways we can confidently evaluate any situation. With concerns of a global recession on everyone’s minds today, it’s important to take an objective look at what has transpired over the years and how the housing market has successfully weathered these storms.

    1. The Market Today Is Vastly Different from 2008

    We all remember 2008. This is not 2008. Today’s market conditions are far from the time when housing was a key factor that triggered a recession. From easy-to-access mortgages to skyrocketing home price appreciation, a surplus of inventory, excessive equity-tapping, and more – we’re not where we were 12 years ago. None of those factors are in play today. Rest assured, housing is not a catalyst that could spiral us back to that time or place.

    According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, if there is a recession:

    “It will be different than the Great Recession. Things unraveled pretty quickly, and then the recovery was pretty slow. I would expect this to be milder. There’s no dysfunction in the banking system, we don’t have many households who are over-leveraged with their mortgage payments and are potentially in trouble.”

     

    In addition, the Goldman Sachs GDP Forecast that was recently released indicates that although there is no growth anticipated immediately, gains are forecasted heading into the second half of this year and getting even stronger in early 2021.

    Both of these expert sources indicate this is a momentary event in time, not a collapse of the financial industry. It is a drop that will rebound quickly, a stark difference to the crash of 2008 that failed to get back to a sense of normal for almost four years. Although it poses plenty of near-term financial challenges, a potential recession this year is not a repeat of the long-term housing market crash we remember all too well.

    2. A Recession Does Not Equal a Housing Crisis

    Next, take a look at the past five recessions in U.S. history. Home values actually appreciated in three of them. It is true that they sank by almost 20% during the last recession, but as we’ve identified above, 2008 presented different circumstances. In the four previous recessions, home values depreciated only once (by less than 2%). In the other three, residential real estate values increased by 3.5%, 6.1%, and 6.6% (see below):

    3. We Can Be Confident About What We Know

    Concerns about the global impact COVID-19 will have on the economy are real. And they’re scary, as the health and wellness of our friends, families, and loved ones are high on everyone’s emotional radar.

    According to Bloomberg,

    “Several economists made clear that the extent of the economic wreckage will depend on factors such as how long the virus lasts, whether governments will loosen fiscal policy enough and can markets avoid freezing up.”

    That said, we can be confident that, while we don’t know the exact impact the virus will have on the housing market, we do know that housing isn’t the driver.

    The reasons we move – marriage, children, job changes, retirement, etc. – are steadfast parts of life. As noted in a recent piece in the New York Times, “Everyone needs someplace to live.” That won’t change.

     

    Concerns about a recession are real, but housing isn’t the driver.

    If you have questions about what it means for your family’s homebuying or selling plans, let’s connect to discuss your needs.

    Get Home Value

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    About the author

    Susana Murphy

    508-345-5632
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    I'm Susana Murphy, and I founded ALANTE with a clear vision and a passion for redefining what real estate should be. Let me share with you why ALANTE exists, what we stand for, and what we aim to offer both our valued clients and our dedicated agents. ALANTE Real Estate wasn't just a business venture for me—it was a calling born out of a deep-seated belief in doing things differently, and doing them better. Having been in the real estate industry since 2005 myself as a top producing Realtor, I saw firsthand the immense potential for innovation and improvement. I recognized that traditional practices were falling short in meeting the evolving needs of clients and agents alike. My vision for ALANTE was simple yet profound: to elevate the real estate experience by combining cutting-edge technology combined with story driven marketing and timeless values. In an industry often defined by transactions, I wanted to focus on service. I wanted to create a space where clients felt heard, valued, and supported every step of the way, and where agents could thrive in an environment that prioritizes collaboration, growth, support and integrity. At ALANTE, we believe in offering our clients more than just transactions—we offer them transformative experiences. We understand that buying or selling a home is not just a financial decision; it's an emotional journey filled with dreams, aspirations, and life-changing moments. That's why we approach each interaction with empathy, expertise, and a genuine desire to exceed expectations. For our agents, ALANTE is more than just a brokerage—it's a community of like-minded professionals committed to excellence. We provide our agents with the tools, training, and support they need to succeed, all while fostering a culture of mutual respect, collaboration, and continuous learning. We believe that empowered agents create exceptional experiences for our clients, and that belief is at the core of everything we do. In an industry that's constantly evolving, we remain steadfast in our commitment to innovation and adaptability. We embrace technology not as a replacement for human connection, but as a catalyst for enhancing it. From advanced marketing strategies to streamlined processes, we leverage technology to enhance efficiency, transparency, and results. We don't just meet industry standards—we set new ones. We believe in raising the bar and redefining what it means to be a leader in real estate. Our dedication to excellence, integrity, and client satisfaction sets us apart, and it's what drives us to continually push boundaries and exceed expectations. So, whether you're a client looking for a personalized, unparalleled real estate experience or an agent seeking a supportive, forward-thinking brokerage, we invite you to join us on this extraordinary journey. Together, we're not just reimagining real estate—we're elevating it to new heights. Welcome to ALANTE Real Estate, where your vision meets our passion.

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