Another thing that’s very interesting about the world that we live in right now relative to business, is the number of business applications across the U.S. has skyrocketed this year.  Which is really a tribute to innovation across the country as people have seen here’s a need through the pandemic; they can shift their business,  create a business, do something different to be able to meet the need of consumers in today’s market. 

There is no doubt there have been a lot of businesses that have been impacted in a negative way going through the pandemic, but there’s been so much response of people saying I’m going to start a business. I’m going to do something that’s going to serve a need in this country. It’s no different than the housing crash back in 2008. A lot of the great companies that are around today were started and that innovation was birthed during the downturn of the Great Recession. So, this is positive news relative to businesses and people starting businesses to innovate and meet a need through this health crisis that’s caused an economic crisis across the country in the year that is 2020.

Now, the question that’s on a lot of people’s minds, things we’ve talked about over the summer, is unemployment. Weekly filings for unemployment, the weekly claims across this country since this started in late March (see graphic).  As you look at this you can see kind of where we’ve been, and certainly the height towards the end of March around 7 million people in one week claiming unemployment. Most recently, about 750,000 claiming unemployment in the most recent weeks. 

We’ve been in this area for the last couple of months, around eight or nine hundred thousand people filing for unemployment each week. We want to see that continue to come down, but we’re hovering in that area. The interesting thing about that is as people continue to apply for unemployment, people are getting their jobs back and coming off of unemployment. 

A lot of experts were saying hey we’re going to see 30% of homeowners take forbearance. That actually never happened. Back in May we reached this height of about 8.5% of mortgages in forbearance. Where we sit today is 5.8 percent of mortgagees in forbearance, and that number is dropping. So, all of these loans that are going to go into forbearance never happened, and we see quite the opposite of that. A fraction of those, and that number dropping. 

What we know as well is the percentage of forbearances by product type is decreasing - look at Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie, and then private mortgages, all of those things dropping.

Now, as we see these mortgages starting to come off of forbearance and decrease, that in itself is not the complete answer to are we going to see a housing crash, because there are a lot of people that are affected by this.

As of October 20th, of the 5.7 million families granted forbearance, this is what happened upon the expiration of the plan. 

The orange bar all the way over, nearly 2.4 million extended their forbearance. As we mentioned earlier, the CFPB built in a provision to what they deemed request and be given an extension of 180 days. So, your first initial 180 days, you can get an extension for another 180 days for a total of 360 days on your mortgage. 

The next group - blue and green bars -  44% of mortgages either were removed while they were performing. These are the people that took it and said we don’t need it - we’re going to move on.  They’re performing on their mortgage. Five hundred thousand paid off their mortgage through this process. Now, we don’t know the breakdown of those, the number of people that sold and maybe there are people in there that said you know what, we can’t hold on to the house, we’re going to sell it. But certainly people that their mortgage was paid off during that time, 44% of those expired while performing or paid their mortgage off.

Now the grey bar - 481,000 people expired while delinquent and are in some form of loss mitigation. Think about this as a workout with their bank, tacking these payments on the end, doing things that help them survive this and the bank saying they're going to help you work through this and use the forbearance plan for the way it was intended. That’s a good thing. The last tranche there, 80,000 people expired while delinquent and are not in some form of loss mitigation.

Zillow just came out with a study last week of the top three reasons homeowners are not putting their homes on the market, which is very interesting. 

31% say financial uncertainty is a reason we are not putting our home on the market.

34% say life is too uncertain right now and you can’t argue with that.  There’s a lot of uncertainty in the world. 

The reality is in feeling uncertain right now there will be a cost to waiting for certainty. A quarter of people, 25% of people say I have concerns about my health and bringing people into the house relative to COVID.

As we look into the future right now, what we can see, the projections on home prices is very positive. 

As we look at this graph - Zillow at one end, MBA on the other end, a lot of people in the middle, 4% appreciation going into next year.  Again, going back to if you wait for that certainty you’re going to be seeing appreciation going into next year. So, the same house is going cost you more relative to that. So, the price is going to be higher and the cost ultimately determined by rising mortgage rates, is going to be higher. 

The MBA’s most recent forecast has come out and forecasted 3.3% next year, 3.639% in the years following. Which, you can look at as a changing rate but not a higher interest rate on a 30-year fixed. It’s a very good interest rate. The reality of the place that we live in today and interest rates, it makes a 4.5% or a 5% mortgage look very high. 

It’s going up in price and the interest rate is going up and that will be the price of waiting for certainty in the market.

In the Town of Hingham, the number of new homes entering the market has decreased.  Homes spent more time on the market during October than they did in September. The Average Sale Price remains in the million dollar bracket month over month.

In the Town of Marshfield, the number of homes sold during the month of October increased. Properties are selling at a slightly slower pace - spending just over a month on the market.  The Average Sales Price has remained consistent month over month.

In the Town of Duxbury, the Average Sale Price of homes has remained in the million dollar bracket since August and has increased from $1m in September.  Available inventory has decreased while the Average Days on Market have increased by more than half in October.

In the Town of Cohasset, the amount of available inventory has remained consistent over the last two months which shows a steady market.  The number of days on market has decreased from 119 in September.  The Average Sale Price remains in the million dollar bracket, slightly lower than September which was at $1.5M.

In the Town of Pembroke, the amount of new offerings in the last 30 days have increased however the total amount of homes for sale has remained consistent which indicates that homes are still selling and entering the market simultaneously. The Average Days on Market increased from 36 days in September. The Average Sale Price has decreased from the mid $500,000s in September.

In the Town of Bourne, the amount of available inventory has decreased month over month.  The Average Days on Market has remained consistent which tells us that the buyer demand is there however the lack of inventory is hindering them buying at an even faster pace.  The Average Sale Price has continued to increase from $614k in September.

In the Town of Mashpee, the Average Sale Price has increased from $779,000 in September.  The Average Days on Market have decreased drastically from 124 days in September.  The number of homes sold has remained consistent since July with just a slight increase in October.

In the Town of Chatham, home sales decreased slightly during the month of October. The market in Chatham is remaining consistent with throughout the last two months.  The Average Sale Price has remained in the million dollar bracket over the last 3 months.  The Average Days on Market decreased slightly from 120 in September.