So much happening across the country in real estate right now, but the biggest story certainly is the lack of available inventory causing this market – they call it here “robust demand, intense competition.” 

We’re seeing bidding wars. All the things that we know are happening right now in the real estate market. 

Why is that happening?

First reason, is we don’t have the sellers that we need in the market today. This graphic here from NAR shows seller traffic. Think about those that are putting their homes on the market. In this gray – darker gray – is the very weak seller traffic. Moving to blue. And then dark blue in no case. There may be a little bit darker blue. Stronger seller traffic in one state. In West Virginia you can see it there, but the majority of the country, weak to very weak seller traffic.

Read more HERE.

Now, for the last several Monthly Market Reports, we’ve talked about forecasts. 

What are forecasters saying? I’ve got an update for that, but suffice it say, in the rearview mirror, we’ve seen strong and are seeing strong appreciation right now. As we look forward, we’re forecasted to see strong appreciation. This is the latest look. Now, we went down from seven to five forecasters in this case for a couple of reasons. One, these are forecasters that are forecasting home price appreciation in 2021. The other two forecast for the next 12 months. This gives us a little bit more of an apples to apples approach, but also, the one thing that these five have in common is each one of them have upped their forecast as the year has gone on. 

We’re here in June and we started out in January. It’s come up several points since then. The average right now – 8.2% appreciation by forecasters in the 2021 real estate market. Now what’s that going to depend upon as we go throughout the year? 

Demand and supply. We know demand is there and we’re wondering, is supply coming back? We’ve talked about that. But that will be the ultimate determiner of price as we go forward. But what you see experts clearly saying here is we’re going to have a strong price appreciation this year as we go throughout, and that’s just – again. Not in one area of the country. 

So homes being very affordable. We look back over time. Those that are in the hunt right now trying to buy a home. And maybe you’ve gotten outbid or whatever the case may be. Getting frustrated or fatigued in their pursuit of buying a home. Here’s what I would remind them of. Homes are affordable, and as opposed to renting, the options are still very, very good. 

Michael Laughlin said this from the Urban Institute. “Contrary to popular belief, owing one’s home is frequently more affordable than renting. It is cheaper to buy a home than it is to rent in two out of three of American counties.” 5 of 7 So it’s more affordable to buy a home than it is to rent. 

We know all the benefits of home ownership. We’ve talked about that. June’s the National Home Ownership month. I’m going to talk about that in just a minute, and what’s happening with the price of rent? It continues to go up. This is a look going all the way back to 1990. Rent continues to go up. 

Renters do not see the benefit that homeowners do. Whether it be through the power of a refinance. Whether it be through all the intangible or non-financial benefits homeownership that we know.We need to be vocal about that right now. Michael Laughlin also in that report said that.

“We need to stop seeing housing as a reward for financial success and instead see it as a critical tool that can facilitate financial success. Affordable home ownership is not the capstone of economic wellbeing. It is the cornerstone.” and certainly we know across the country the business that we’re in – all the stories that we know of folks that have used equity in their homes have used the appreciation in their homes to start a business, to send a child to college, whatever the case may be in using their home to do that.

“Many find it hard to believe, but housing is actually undervalued in most markets. And the gap between house buying power and sales prices indicates there’s room for further house price growth in the months to come.” So what’s he saying? There’s room for homes to go up in price. As they measure affordability, house buying and houses are actually undervalued in most markets. Not something we’re hearing a lot out there. But when you start to look at the numbers, that’s very apparent.

 Now, how we’ve always looked at this – I keep in current matters, and bridge builders is – looking at Housing Affordability Index. If we look at the housing affordability index – that’s produced by NAR – you can see where we stand today. Now, if you haven’t seen this, the higher the index is the more affordable a home is. And where do we stand today? We stand in a very, very good position. Homes being more affordable almost going all the way back to 2012, 2013 in what the dollar will buy. 

Now what stands out are the area in the middle there - where for the years were distressed properties dominated the market after the housing crash. But very, very good affordability relative to what the dollar will buy. If you want to look at that visually, the percentage of median income needed to purchase a median price home historically is about 21.2%. Back in the housing crash that rose to about 25.4%, and today we sit at 14.4% on average. The median income needed to purchase the median priced home. 

In the Town of Plymouth, home sales have increased through the month of April from 36 homes sold in April. The Average Days on Market remained relatively steady at less than one months time. The the Average Sale Price has been steady around 500k the last two months. We are seeing more homes on the market in May as the current homes for sale has decreased by 7 in April. 

In the Town of Scituate, the Average Sale Price has increased by 100k although with less offerings in the last 30 days. Home sales have stayed relatively the same month over month as well as less days on the market for the month of April. 

In the Town of Kingston, the number of new offerings has increased slightly over the last three months. The number of homes sold has increased since the month of April.  The Average Sale Price has continued to stay relevantly in the high $500K to the mid-$600K range while spending significantly less time on the market. 

In the Town of Norwell, the Average Days on Market have significantly improved to 13 days compared to March which was 36 days.  There is limited inventory in many towns, including Norwell however, the number remains fairly consistent month over month with only slight fluctuations. The Average Sale Price although has increased from $782K in April to $928K In May. 

In the Town of Hanover, the number of homes sold increased from 7 in April. The Average Days on Market has decreased significantly from 76 days in April to 8 days in May.  The average sales price has stayed within the $600K range. 

In the Town of Hull, the number of homes sold has increased increased by 7 since April. Homes entering the market have remained consistent and there is still a very limited amount of  available inventory.

The Average Days on Market have dramatically decreased from 58 days in February to 10 days in May.  The Average Sale Price has increased from $499k in February to over $600k last month to $715K this month.

In the Town of Sandwich, the Average Days on Market decreased significantly while the number of homes sold remained fairly consistent.  Currently there are 24 homes for sale compared to last months 15 meaning the inventory has stayed relatively the same. 

In the Town of Falmouth, the Average Sale Price has decreased from $986K in April. With limited inventory in most towns, there are still a good amount of new homes entering the market as we moved through the month of May although resulting in a decrease the past month. The number of homes sold has increased from the 30's.

In the Town of Yarmouth Port, inventory has decreased since the month of April compared to April's 51 new offerings.  The Average Days on Market has decreased significantly to 6 days compared to April which was 25 days. The average sale price had decreased along with the inventory.